Weeklies

16 analysis reports

Week #36 market update: SPY gained 0.4%, IWM gained 0.7%, ACWX gained 1.4%, and the USO oil proxy jumped 6.2%. August payrolls beat expectations while Treasury yields rose, leaving equities supported by earnings but exposed to next week's inflation data.

Week #35 — Market Update for August 24-28, 2026

Nvidia Proved the Demand. The Fed Kept the Valuation Hurdle High

Macro30 August 2026Current earnings should beat broad growth exposure while inflation keeps the front-end policy rate high and market breadth weak

Week #35 market update: SPY gained 0.5% and Nvidia confirmed strong AI demand, but small caps fell 1.4% and the 2-year yield rose 10 basis points after firm PCE inflation and a hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

Week #34 — Market Update for August 17-21, 2026

Oil and Yields Broke the Equity Rally. Treasury Liquidity Sent Crypto the Other Way

Macro23 August 2026Current cash flow should beat long-duration growth while oil and yields rise, but Treasury liquidity can still lift scarce assets independently of the equity cycle

Week #34 market update: SPY fell 1.4% and semiconductors lost 4.7% as oil and Treasury yields rose, while bitcoin jumped 24.4% after Treasury expanded debt buybacks. Favor current earnings and treat crypto as a liquidity trade.

Week #33 — Market Update for August 10-14, 2026

Cooler Inflation Protected Equities. Oil and Weak Retail Sales Complicated the Trade

Macro16 August 2026Broad equities can hold up while inflation cools, but weaker consumer demand and higher oil favor current cash flow over discretionary exposure and long duration

Week #33 market update: SPY gained 0.4%, small caps rose 1.2%, retail sales fell 0.6%, and WTI jumped 5.4%. Cooler inflation protected equity multiples, but weaker demand and higher oil made the broadening less secure.

Week #32 — Market Update for August 3-7, 2026

Bad Jobs Became Good News Because Oil Fell and Growth Outside Labor Held Up

Macro9 August 2026The market can keep rewarding profitable growth while lower oil and weaker hiring reduce Fed hike risk, but the setup fails if inflation stays high or labor weakness reaches profits

Week #32 market update: SPY gained 3.5%, QQQ rose 5.1%, payrolls fell by 23,000, and WTI dropped 7.7%. Investors bought slower hiring as policy relief because manufacturing and services still expanded, but next week's inflation data must confirm that read.

Week #31 — Market Update for July 27-31, 2026

AI Spending Passed a Harder Test. The Bond Market Did Not Relax

Macro2 August 2026AI spending still earns a premium when cloud cash flow arrives with it, but higher long yields punish suppliers and rate-sensitive assets that rely on distant returns

Week #31 market update: SPY gained 1.1% as Microsoft and Amazon proved AI spending can support current cloud growth, but semiconductors fell 3.7% and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 5.27%. Leadership broadened while the market raised its cash-return hurdle.

Week #30 — Market Update for July 20-24, 2026

Oil Reached the Bond Market. AI Spending Became an Earnings Problem

Macro26 July 2026The oil shock lifted the whole Treasury curve while AI capital spending faced a higher bar for near-term cash returns

Week #30 market update: QQQ fell 1.6%, the WTI proxy rose 10.3%, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 14 basis points to 4.69%, and equal weight finished flat. Strong activity and higher energy costs are raising the cost of capital while investors demand proof that AI spending can earn an adequate return.

Week #29 — Market Update for July 13-17, 2026

Soft Inflation Could Not Save Crowded AI. Oil Became the Macro Risk

Macro19 July 2026The semiconductor selloff survived soft inflation and stable yields, while the oil shock created the next macro risk

Week #29 market update: SPY fell 1.5%, QQQ lost 4.2%, semiconductors dropped 8.9%, Brent rose 15.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.55%. This was a concentrated AI unwind, but higher oil can turn it into a broader inflation and demand problem.

Week #28 — Market Update for July 6-10, 2026

AI Leadership Returned, but Rates and Inflation Risk Moved Against It

Macro12 July 2026AI leadership recovered, but higher long yields and a divided Fed raise the earnings bar for expensive growth

Week #28 market update: chip-led U.S. equities rallied, bitcoin gained 2.4%, ether rose 2.2%, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56%, ISM services held at 54.0, and jobless claims fell to 215,000. Growth leadership is back, but the macro setup got harder.

Week #27 — Market Update for June 29-July 3, 2026

Breadth Improved, but the Semis Lost Sponsorship and Yields Pushed Back

Macro5 July 2026The index tape improved, but semiconductor weakness and higher Treasury yields keep the rally fragile

Week #27 market update: SPY rose 0.5%, RSP rose 0.9%, QQQ fell 1.6%, SOXX fell 7.8%, bitcoin rose 5.1%, ether rose 11.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.49%. The market broadened away from AI hardware, not into a clean new growth leg.

Week #26 — Market Update for June 22-26, 2026

AI Leadership Cracked While Inflation Stayed Too High for an Easy Fed Pivot

Macro28 June 2026The market cut crowded AI and Nasdaq exposure while equal weight held up, but hot PCE inflation still keeps the Fed from giving investors a clean easing story

Week #26 market update: SPY fell 2.1%, QQQ fell 4.3%, semiconductors dropped almost 10%, bitcoin fell 5.1%, the dollar rose 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.38%. This was a leadership reset, not a full growth scare, but May PCE inflation at 4.1% year over year keeps the Fed constrained.

Week #25 — Market Update for June 15-19, 2026

The Market Still Paid for AI Growth, but Breadth Stopped Improving

Macro21 June 2026The rally narrowed back toward AI growth while equal weight, commodities, and the dollar warned against treating it as a broad-market green light

Week #25 market update: SPY rose 0.7%, QQQ rose 2.7%, semiconductors surged, equal weight fell 0.8%, the dollar rose 1.3%, oil fell more than 8%, and the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. The market still wants AI growth, but breadth no longer confirms the full rally.

Week #24 — Market Update for June 8-12, 2026

Breadth Came Back, But the Rally Still Depends on Calm Rates

Macro14 June 2026The market is paying for breadth again, but inflation and yields still decide how long the trade lasts

Week #24 market update: SPY rose 0.6%, QQQ rose 2.3%, IWM rose 4.0%, semiconductors surged, global ex-US equities gained 3.4%, bitcoin rose 2.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.48%. Breadth improved, but CPI and Michigan inflation expectations still argue against treating this as a clean Fed-cut setup.

Week #23 — Market Update for June 1-5, 2026

The Labor Market Stayed Firm, Yields Rose, and Crowded AI Momentum Cracked

Macro6 June 2026Higher yields are forcing investors out of crowded duration and back toward cash-flow quality

Week #23 market update: SPY fell 2.5%, QQQ fell 4.5%, semiconductors broke, bitcoin dropped 16%, and the Treasury curve moved higher after a firm May jobs report. The rotation favored energy, healthcare, financials, and cash-flow quality over crowded AI duration.

Rate Relief Is Not a Regime Change

Rates Fell and Semiconductor Stocks Rallied, but the Economic Risks Remain

Macro27 May 2026Respect the semiconductor rally, but do not treat one good rates day as a regime change

A weekly market note on 26 May: 10Y yields fell from 4.56% to 4.49%, credit looked fine, and investors bought QQQ, SMH, and SOXX. But inflation expectations are still high, PMI data are softer, the Fed is not clearly ready to cut, and VIX rose on an up day. This is fragile, not cleanly bullish.

AI + Semi Weekly

Compute Demand Is Accelerating Again

Semiconductors28 Apr 2026Long compute toll roads · watch model margin compression

Google may commit up to $40B to Anthropic and gigawatts of TPU capacity, TPU 8 splits training and inference, DeepSeek V4 pushes model prices down, and NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra pushes token costs down. The market read: cheaper intelligence pressures weak AI software margins, but expands token volume and keeps semis, memory, networking and power infrastructure bid. Includes this week's chip stock price action and TPU 8 vs NVIDIA comparison.