Weeklies

8 analysis reports

Week #28 market update: chip-led U.S. equities rallied, bitcoin gained 2.4%, ether rose 2.2%, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56%, ISM services held at 54.0, and jobless claims fell to 215,000. Growth leadership is back, but the macro setup got harder.

Week #27 — Market Update for June 29-July 3, 2026

Breadth Improved, but the Semis Lost Sponsorship and Yields Pushed Back

Macro5 July 2026The index tape improved, but semiconductor weakness and higher Treasury yields keep the rally fragile

Week #27 market update: SPY rose 0.5%, RSP rose 0.9%, QQQ fell 1.6%, SOXX fell 7.8%, bitcoin rose 5.1%, ether rose 11.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.49%. The market broadened away from AI hardware, not into a clean new growth leg.

Week #26 — Market Update for June 22-26, 2026

AI Leadership Cracked While Inflation Stayed Too High for an Easy Fed Pivot

Macro28 June 2026The market cut crowded AI and Nasdaq exposure while equal weight held up, but hot PCE inflation still keeps the Fed from giving investors a clean easing story

Week #26 market update: SPY fell 2.1%, QQQ fell 4.3%, semiconductors dropped almost 10%, bitcoin fell 5.1%, the dollar rose 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.38%. This was a leadership reset, not a full growth scare, but May PCE inflation at 4.1% year over year keeps the Fed constrained.

Week #25 — Market Update for June 15-19, 2026

The Market Still Paid for AI Growth, but Breadth Stopped Improving

Macro21 June 2026The rally narrowed back toward AI growth while equal weight, commodities, and the dollar warned against treating it as a broad-market green light

Week #25 market update: SPY rose 0.7%, QQQ rose 2.7%, semiconductors surged, equal weight fell 0.8%, the dollar rose 1.3%, oil fell more than 8%, and the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. The market still wants AI growth, but breadth no longer confirms the full rally.

Week #24 — Market Update for June 8-12, 2026

Breadth Came Back, But the Rally Still Depends on Calm Rates

Macro14 June 2026The market is paying for breadth again, but inflation and yields still decide how long the trade lasts

Week #24 market update: SPY rose 0.6%, QQQ rose 2.3%, IWM rose 4.0%, semiconductors surged, global ex-US equities gained 3.4%, bitcoin rose 2.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.48%. Breadth improved, but CPI and Michigan inflation expectations still argue against treating this as a clean Fed-cut setup.

Week #23 — Market Update for June 1-5, 2026

The Labor Market Stayed Firm, Yields Rose, and Crowded AI Momentum Cracked

Macro6 June 2026Higher yields are forcing investors out of crowded duration and back toward cash-flow quality

Week #23 market update: SPY fell 2.5%, QQQ fell 4.5%, semiconductors broke, bitcoin dropped 16%, and the Treasury curve moved higher after a firm May jobs report. The rotation favored energy, healthcare, financials, and cash-flow quality over crowded AI duration.

Rate Relief Is Not a Regime Change

Rates Fell and Semiconductor Stocks Rallied, but the Economic Risks Remain

Macro27 May 2026Respect the semiconductor rally, but do not treat one good rates day as a regime change

A weekly market note on 26 May: 10Y yields fell from 4.56% to 4.49%, credit looked fine, and investors bought QQQ, SMH, and SOXX. But inflation expectations are still high, PMI data are softer, the Fed is not clearly ready to cut, and VIX rose on an up day. This is fragile, not cleanly bullish.

AI + Semi Weekly

Compute Demand Is Accelerating Again

Semiconductors28 Apr 2026Long compute toll roads · watch model margin compression

Google may commit up to $40B to Anthropic and gigawatts of TPU capacity, TPU 8 splits training and inference, DeepSeek V4 pushes model prices down, and NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra pushes token costs down. The market read: cheaper intelligence pressures weak AI software margins, but expands token volume and keeps semis, memory, networking and power infrastructure bid. Includes this week's chip stock price action and TPU 8 vs NVIDIA comparison.