Weeklies

24 analysis reports

SPY fell 0.56%, QQQ lost 1.97%, and IWM gained 1.30%. Amazon and Alphabet reported strong cloud growth, but spending concerns weighed on technology shares. The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% with two hike dissents. Core PCE reached 3.1%, while the ten-year Treasury yield fell to 4.94%.

Week #43 — Market Update for October 19-23, 2026

Small Caps Recovered as AI Financing and Oil Remained Risks

Macro25 October 2026Separate funded growth from external-capital dependence as stronger market breadth meets persistent energy inflation

SPY fell 0.43%, QQQ lost 0.76%, and IWM gained 1.96%. Bloom reported rapid growth but negative operating cash flow, while Solidigm ended its IPO review. Strong US business activity and faster selling-price inflation complicated a Treasury rally. Brent rose 6.24% ahead of the October Fed meeting.

Week #42 — Market Update for October 12-16, 2026

AI Stocks Fell Despite Strong Foundry Earnings

Macro18 October 2026Separate strong chip demand from customer financing risk while higher oil prices complicate the inflation outlook

SPY fell 1.97%, QQQ lost 5.52%, and DIA rose 0.58%. TSMC guided revenue higher, but AI financing concerns weighed on equities. WTI futures gained 10.41% as headline inflation reached 3.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.09%. Next week's flash PMIs test activity and pricing.

Market Update for October 5-9, 2026

Large Indexes Rose as Borrowing Costs Stayed High

Macro11 October 2026Favor selective exposure: weak small caps, crypto selling, and Fed hike warnings show that financing remains restrictive

Weekly market update: SPY gained 1.16% and DIA gained 0.98%. IWM fell 0.92% and ETH dropped 6.84%. The 10-year Treasury ended at 5.24%, and Waller kept additional hikes on the table. Next week's CPI and earnings will test whether the rally can broaden.

Market Update for September 28-October 2, 2026

Weak Hiring Reduced Hike Pressure. Long-Term Yields Stayed High.

Macro4 October 2026Favor companies with strong earnings over a broad recovery trade while long-term yields and input inflation remain high

Weekly market update: SPY fell 0.22% while QQQ gained 0.68%. September payrolls rose just 29,000, and the 10-year yield ended at 5.28%. Manufacturing input inflation and eurozone energy costs kept financing expensive despite Friday's rally on reduced policy pressure.

Market Update for September 21-25, 2026

AI Stocks Rallied as Higher Yields Weighed on the Broader Market

Macro27 September 2026AI earnings can support the index, but weak breadth and a 5.17% 10-year yield make broad exposure unattractive

Weekly market update: QQQ gained 3.2% and semiconductors gained 5.9%. Equal-weight stocks and small caps fell. Strong PMIs, firm labor data, and high energy costs drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.17%. The rally remained narrow and dependent on AI earnings.

Market Update for September 14-18, 2026

Oil Eased, Yields Rose, and AI Led a Narrow Market

Macro18 Sep 2026AI leadership can support the index, but a 5% 10-year yield leaves the broader rally vulnerable

US equities finished mixed. QQQ outperformed while small caps and the Dow fell. The Fed and BOJ raised rates, Treasury yields rose, and oil eased late in the week without removing inflation risk. Bitcoin rebounded. Equity leadership remained narrow as borrowing costs stayed high.

Market Update for September 7-11, 2026

Higher Oil Prices Raised Inflation and Rate-Hike Risk

Macro13 September 2026Favor scarce energy and current cash flow over broad equity exposure and long-duration assets while oil keeps central banks tightening

Weekly market update: SPY fell 0.8%, equal-weight stocks lost 1.9%, and the WTI proxy gained 9.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points as oil and inflation pushed the Fed toward a September hike.

Market Update for September 1-4, 2026

Stocks Held Up as Strong Hiring Raised Rate-Hike Risk

Macro6 September 2026Current earnings can support stocks at higher discount rates. Persistent oil strength and renewed core inflation would threaten that support.

Weekly market update: SPY gained 0.4%, IWM gained 0.7%, and ACWX gained 1.4%. The USO oil proxy jumped 6.2%. August payrolls beat expectations and Treasury yields rose. Earnings supported equities, with next week's inflation data a risk.

Market Update for August 24-28, 2026

Nvidia Confirmed AI Demand as Inflation Kept Rate Pressure High

Macro30 August 2026Favor current earnings over broad growth exposure while inflation keeps policy rates high and market breadth weak

Weekly market update: SPY gained 0.5% and Nvidia confirmed strong AI demand. Small caps fell 1.4%, and the 2-year yield rose 10 basis points after firm PCE inflation and a hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

Market Update for August 17-21, 2026

Oil and Yields Hurt Equities. Treasury Buybacks Lifted Bitcoin.

Macro23 August 2026Favor current cash flow over long-duration growth while oil and yields rise. Treasury liquidity can still lift scarce assets independently of equities.

Weekly market update: SPY fell 1.4% and semiconductors lost 4.7% as oil and Treasury yields rose. Bitcoin jumped 24.4% after Treasury expanded debt buybacks. Favor current earnings and treat crypto as a liquidity trade.

Market Update for August 10-14, 2026

Cooler Inflation Supported Stocks as Retail Sales Fell and Oil Rose

Macro16 August 2026Cooling inflation supports equities, but weaker consumer demand and higher oil favor current cash flow over discretionary stocks and long-duration assets

Weekly market update: SPY gained 0.4% and small caps rose 1.2%. Retail sales fell 0.6%, and WTI jumped 5.4%. Cooler inflation supported equity valuations. Weaker demand and higher oil put the broader rally at risk.

Market Update for August 3-7, 2026

Weaker Hiring and Lower Oil Reduced Rate-Hike Risk

Macro9 August 2026Favor profitable growth while lower oil and weaker hiring reduce Fed hike risk. Persistent inflation or weaker profits would undermine the trade.

Weekly market update: SPY gained 3.5% and QQQ rose 5.1%. Payrolls fell by 23,000, and WTI dropped 7.7%. Investors saw slower hiring as reducing rate-hike risk while manufacturing and services still expanded. Next week's inflation data will test that view.

Market Update for July 27-31, 2026

Cloud Growth Supported AI Spending as Long-Term Yields Rose

Macro2 August 2026Favor AI spending backed by current cloud cash flow. Higher long-term yields pressure suppliers and rate-sensitive assets dependent on distant returns.

Weekly market update: SPY gained 1.1% as Microsoft and Amazon showed AI spending can support current cloud growth. Semiconductors fell 3.7%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 5.27%. Leadership broadened, but higher yields increased the return required on investment.

Market Update for July 20-24, 2026

Higher Oil Lifted Yields and Increased Pressure on AI Returns

Macro26 July 2026The oil shock raised Treasury yields across maturities and increased the near-term cash returns required from AI capital spending

Weekly market update: QQQ fell 1.6%, the WTI proxy rose 10.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 14 basis points to 4.69%. Equal weight finished flat. Strong activity and higher energy costs raised financing costs. Investors demanded evidence that AI spending can earn an adequate return.

Market Update for July 13-17, 2026

AI Stocks Fell Despite Softer Inflation. Higher Oil Added Risk.

Macro19 July 2026Semiconductors fell despite softer inflation and stable yields. Higher oil created the next risk to inflation and demand.

Weekly market update: SPY fell 1.5%, QQQ lost 4.2%, and semiconductors dropped 8.9%. Brent rose 15.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.55%. Selling was concentrated in AI stocks. Higher oil could spread the damage through inflation and weaker demand.

Market Update for July 6-10, 2026

AI Stocks Recovered as Higher Yields Increased Valuation Risk

Macro12 July 2026AI stocks recovered, but higher long-term yields and a divided Fed require stronger earnings to support expensive growth stocks

Weekly market update: chip-led U.S. equities rallied, bitcoin gained 2.4%, and ether rose 2.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56%, ISM services held at 54.0, and jobless claims fell to 215,000. Higher yields increased the pressure on growth-stock valuations.

Market Update for June 29-July 3, 2026

More Stocks Rose as Semiconductors Fell and Yields Increased

Macro5 July 2026Broader index gains remain vulnerable to semiconductor weakness and higher Treasury yields

Weekly market update: SPY rose 0.5% and RSP rose 0.9%. QQQ fell 1.6%, and SOXX fell 7.8%. Bitcoin rose 5.1%, ether rose 11.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.49%. Gains spread beyond AI hardware, but semiconductor weakness limited confidence in growth leadership.

Market Update for June 22-26, 2026

AI Stocks Sold Off as High Inflation Limited Fed Easing

Macro28 June 2026Investors reduced AI and Nasdaq exposure while equal weight held up. High PCE inflation still limits the case for Fed easing.

Weekly market update: SPY fell 2.1%, QQQ fell 4.3%, and semiconductors dropped almost 10%. Bitcoin fell 5.1%, the dollar rose 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.38%. Equal weight held up, suggesting a shift in leadership rather than a broad growth scare. May PCE inflation at 4.1% year over year constrained the Fed.

Market Update for June 15-19, 2026

AI Stocks Led as Market Breadth Weakened

Macro21 June 2026Favor selective AI exposure: weaker equal-weight stocks, falling commodities, and a stronger dollar do not support a broad-market rally

Weekly market update: SPY rose 0.7%, QQQ rose 2.7%, and semiconductors surged. Equal weight fell 0.8%, the dollar rose 1.3%, and oil fell more than 8%. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Gains narrowed toward AI growth.

Market Update for June 8-12, 2026

Market Breadth Improved as Yields Eased. Inflation Remained a Risk.

Macro14 June 2026Broader participation supports the rally while yields stay calm. Inflation remains a risk to that support.

Weekly market update: SPY rose 0.6%, QQQ rose 2.3%, and IWM rose 4.0%. Semiconductors surged, global ex-US equities gained 3.4%, and bitcoin rose 2.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.48%. CPI and Michigan inflation expectations still limited the case for Fed cuts.

Market Update for June 1-5, 2026

Firm Hiring Raised Yields as AI Stocks Fell

Macro6 June 2026Higher yields favor current cash flow over crowded assets dependent on distant earnings

Weekly market update: SPY fell 2.5%, QQQ fell 4.5%, semiconductors sold off, and bitcoin dropped 16%. Treasury yields rose across maturities after a firm May jobs report. Investors favored energy, healthcare, financials, and current cash flow over crowded AI stocks.

Lower Yields Leave Economic Risks Unresolved

Rates Fell and Semiconductor Stocks Rallied, but the Economic Risks Remain

Macro27 May 2026Respect the semiconductor rally while checking whether lower yields persist and economic risks improve

On 26 May, 10Y yields fell from 4.56% to 4.49%, credit held up, and investors bought QQQ, SMH, and SOXX. Inflation expectations remained high, PMI data softened, and the Fed was not clearly ready to cut. VIX rose despite equity gains, leaving the rally vulnerable.

AI and Semiconductor Weekly

Compute Demand Is Accelerating Again

Semiconductors28 Apr 2026Long compute infrastructure; watch margin compression in AI models

Google may commit up to $40B to Anthropic and gigawatts of TPU capacity. TPU 8 separates training and inference, DeepSeek V4 lowers model prices, and NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra lowers token costs. Cheaper AI pressures weak software margins while higher token volumes support semiconductors, memory, networking, and power demand. Includes chip price action and a TPU 8 versus NVIDIA comparison.